I would describe this year in two ways: no quantitative slam dunks, and 2 qualitative slam dunks (Owen Turtenwald and Yuuya Watanabe).
I am not a statistician who was given a vote solely for my quantitative skills, so I can't ignore the qualitative feel, but I also want to cast not just a reactive ballot but an informed ballot. So I find myself narrowed to two ballots that align with my general approach: 1) [Ballot Intentionally Left Blank], and 2) Owen & Yuuya.
Voting someone who doesn't belong is a bigger mistake than not voting someone who belongs, but when I think about Owen and Yuuya I just don't believe the risk of these being players who don't belong is very high. Playing at or near the top (not top LEVEL but straight top) of the world for years and years is something that Hall of Famers are made of. Leave all that "he loves the game!" crap behind, these two were some of the toughest opponents in multiple years, multiple formats, and multiple ways. Even on a bad day, these guys didn't give you much you had to go take it. My A Game never matched their A Game and their C Game, well, I probably couldn't even tell it apart from their A Game.
Notes on others: Heezy - I love the guy but if Arnost Zidek or Mitamura had his career I wouldn't think twice here and I owe it to everyone to try and be somewhat objective. 4 top 8s with a win is nice but if it was that simple the requirements would be hard-coded. Can't do it.
Floch/Seth - Gotta stretch results out a bit, prove you can do it for an extended period of time. They might enough for a Rich Hagon e-book though.
Justin Gary/Scott Johns/Saito etc: No need to have same discussions year after year when the crowd has spoken and the resumes have not changed. The hall is too big to accommodate people who don't make an impression their first couple times on the ballot if nothing changes, unless they were very close and you never took a hard look the first time. If people were dicks or angle shooters or whatever I won't be the most qualified to opine but I see no need to revisit every single year.
Marin Light Beer - See Herberholz above. Where the stats are borderline and Zac Hill writes about how the person was a master I'm a mortal lock to not vote for them. Hipster-master != actual master.
